Market Musing 8-16-2022, Can the US Market's continue this 8 week upside rise?

PUBLISHED Aug 17, 2022, 11:49:39 AM        SHARE


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1. Moderate Volatility: VIX > 20. SPX has recovered 50% of the market bottom in June. Where do we go from here? The US Markets are rising on slowing inflation and the assumption that the Fed will slow down its aggressive rate hike cycle. The money printing machines are on full blast with the ECB buying Unlimited Bonds and the passing of the $738 Billion Inflation Reduction Act. Perhaps we break out higher, in spite of Stagflation. The new expected SPX range for this week: 4356 top and 4204 bottom.

SPX Chart

Sell Put Credit and Call Credit Spreads. Buy Put Calendars, Ghetto Spreads and Butterflies on overbought Stocks and ETFs.

2. US Dollar and 10 Year Interest Rate:

The US Dollar is range bound again hovering at 107. The 10Y Note Interest has stabilized around 2.8% while 30 year fixed rate mortgages are around 5.5-6%. The Yield curve for the 2year vs 10 year, is the widest inversion ever. In the past, 2 negative GDP Quarters signaled a recession, but apparently this time is different?!?!? Long Term the US Dollar decline is still intact with Fiscal and Monetary stimulus flooding the world with US Dollars.

DXY Chart

  1. Crypto Currency: Bitcoin is stuck at the $24,000 resistance level. Long Term and Institutional Investors are using this DIP to Dollar Cost Average into both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Even BlackRock has jumped in with an investor class SPOT Price Bitcoin Trust. What if just 5% of BlackRock’s 11$ Trillion in Assets flow into this new Bitcoin fund? Who else is following BlackRock’s lead? Corporations, Countries, and Institutional investors are accumulating large Bitcoin positions. Please continue to Dollar Cost Average into Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto winter will last for another 10 months, as we wait for the next Bitcoin Halvening in 22 months.


BTC chart

4. Tasty Works Algo Trading System: James at Quiet Foundation

Alpha Boost ideas, sign up https://info.quietfoundation.com/alphaboost

https://issuu.com/luckbox/docs/2111-luckbox-site/56 Alph Boost Article

If you are new to options or this blog sounds like gibberish, please tryout Tasty Trade’s New 2020 Education. Includes 40 Videos, Testing and you get a certificate of completion at the end of the course.


5. TRADE Log: VIX > 20

  1. Jade Lizards - Z, PYPL

  2. Put Broken Wing Butterflies - TSLA*, GOOGL*

  3. Put and Call Credit Spreads - IWM

  4. Put Calendars - DWAC, BBBY*

  5. Upside Ghetto Spreads - AMZN, TSLA*, GOOGL, AMD*, BABA*

  6. Downside Ghetto Spreads - SPY, QQQ

  7. Collars - AAPL*, JNJ*, F

  8. Weekly Butterflies -

  9. Covered Calls - PDBC

  10. SuperBull - LRCX*

  11. Skewed Upside Call Butterfly - TSLA*

Tasty Trade

  1. Video and Articles

SPECIAL REPORT: US Stock Market, Bear Market Comps 08/01/22


Bear Market Stats

Why Microstrategy: MSTR





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