0

Confirmation of a Breakout (?)

PUBLISHED Nov 27, 2022, 12:54:41 AM        SHARE

img
imgTom Hamilton

Confirmation of a Breakout ?

Nov. 25, 2022 – This was a short week with very light holiday volume, so I’ll get to the point. Note the chart below of the NASDAQ Composite Index. I’ve drawn in a linear regression line with a +/- 2 standard deviation channel. The linear regression line is basically the graphical average between the last peak in mid-August and the last low in early October; half of the “area” (time & price) is above and half is below. Think of +/- 2 standard deviation channel as an “expected move” within that time frame of “typical”.

The blue ellipse shows a breakout from that “expected move” and thus a possible change in character / trend. But . . .we haven’t seen that follow through yet.

All eyes will be on economic news in the coming 2 weeks: 12-1: the PCE report (Personal Consumption & Expenditures)
12-13: the CPI report (Consumer Price Index) 12-14: the FOMC / Fed meeting

For those trying to front run the economy, interest rates and inflation, these are the ones to possibly show a change in behavior. Until then the strength / weakness in the US Dollar and Treasury Bonds will provide some indications of where the money is wagered. Nuff said. Have a good week. ………… Tom …………..

Price chart by MetaStock. Used with permission.



Sound investments
don't happen alone

Find your crew, build teams, compete in VS MODE, and identify investment trends in our evergrowing investment ecosystem. You aren't on an island anymore, and our community is here to help you make informed decisions in a complex world.

More Reads
STOP Making Extra Mortgage Payments on Your LOW Rate Mortgage
Image

If you obtained a mortgage at any point from 2010 through early 2022, there is a good chance your mortgage rate is at or below 4.50%.

Market Musing 11-22-2022, Mild Thanksgiving Week?
Image

High Volatility: VIX > 22. The SPX is trading in tight range this Thanksgiving week.

7 High Return-of-Capital REITs
Image

Real Estate Investment Trusts (i.e., “REITs”) are tax-advantaged income vehicles that have become increasingly popular with investors and institutions in recent years.

What do Bookkeepers do Daily?
Image

You would think that what a bookkeeper did was straightforward. But bookkeeping is about organizing business chaos and creating a summary of a company’s financial life.

FTX Crashes: Everything You Need to Know
Image

Ever wanted to know what the FTX crash is all about? Find out in this article.

November 2022 Stock Considerations
Image

With a new trading month already in full swing it is time, once again, to highlight some of my potential stock purchases.

How is your Retirement Plan?
Image

Retirement Accounts, Retirement Planning, and what your purpose means in retirement

Watching & Waiting
Image

Stock Market Commentary

How To Save Money Fast – 26 Easy Tips
Image

We all know it’s important to save money. But how do you do that when inflation is up, mortgage rates have increased, and rents are rising? Oh, and don’t forget – extra spending is coming with the holidays around the corner. Yet even in tough times, there are strategies to help build savings fast.

Here Are The Requirements For A Hard Money Loan
Image

Hard money loans are one of the more popular options for buying fixer-upper homes to renovate and resell for a profit. While there are alternatives available – such as using a traditional or renovation mortgage – hard money loans usually fund far faster and are less restrictive. If you’re considering a hard money loan for an investment property purchase, here’s a look at what hard money loans are and the typical requirements for a hard money loan.

Unstable Value Funds (VI)
Image

Well, the last installment in this series was 2009. I ran a Guaranteed Investment Contract [GIC] desk at Provident Mutual from 1992-1997. I also managed our internal stable value funds for our pension line of business. This was during a period where increasingly Stable Value Funds were being replaced by bonds and bond funds being wrapped by a type of derivative that would allow for “benefit responsive payments,” called a “wrap contract.”

What is a dividend trap, and how do you avoid it?
Image

With recent declines in stock prices, dividend traps are becoming more prevalent. In this blog post I'll describe what is a dividend trap, it's potential downfalls, and how to avoid these traps. Before we begin, you need to understand dividend yield, and the dividend payout ratio.

Margin call What is it ?~No.1 Beginners Guide
Image

For starters this happens from time to time. Today we address the no.1 cause of sleepless nights for most newbie traders risking their hard earned money in the markets especially when it comes to a margin call what is it and how can you avoid it?

Why I’m Fascinated With Dividend Investing
Image

I’ve been fascinated with dividend investing for many years. It goes back long before I started my journey to financial independence and early retirement. It seems so simple. You buy a company stock that is stable and has dividend history on their side. A stock that figures for a potential future of continued business with dividend and stock growth.

6 Investing Lessons from Our Honeymoon’s Terrible Start
Image

We had a terrible start to our honeymoon. Bad luck and human incompetence torpedoed our first travel day. Naturally, I took it as an investing lesson. Our itinerary was Rochester –> Boston –> Tokyo –> Hanoi. Then after a few days in Hanoi, onward to Chiang Mai, Bangkok, and other parts of Thailand. But things went poorly from the start.

WHAT PARENTS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT HELPING TEENS BUDGET
Image

​Many teens think they know almost everything – that is until they have to experience adulthood for themselves. Parents of adult children will likely tell you that when their children were teens they, as parents, “knew nothing,” but when the magic of adulthood came around, everything changed. Your teens may even think they know how to budget. As a parent, however, you know that it’s not always easy to make and stick to a budget. So how do you teach teens about budgeting? At Wealthy Habits, our goal is to make the conversation easier and a lot more fun for both parents and teens. Here are three tips we share in our online parent webinar, How to Teach Your Kids About Budgeting.

Budgeting on a Single Income
Image

According to a 2017 report in Market Watch, half of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, and about 49% of Americans worry about their financial well being. Living on a single income only amplifies the stress and worry about finances. Having a plan, maintaining fidelity to it, and re-evaluating that plan can all help minimize the stress and allow you to have control over your expenses and your future.

US Economic Growth Expected To Continue In Q4
Image

The recovery in US economic activity in the third quarter appears set to continue in Q4, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although the numbers point to a slowdown in growth, the current Q4 nowcast highlights the possibility that output will post back-to-back quarterly increases for the first time this year

Higher Japanese CPI Won't Change the BOJ's Stance
Image

The capital markets are heading into the weekend mostly quietly in a consolidative fashion.

Resources for Publishers
Resources for New Investors
Boosted with BossCoin